Let’s Bet the Draft
Updated: Jun 20, 2020
2020 has taken away our sports, but it hasn’t taken away our NFL Draft, and I’m here for the degenerates out there looking to put down their hard-earned money on something.. anything. Betonline.ag has put together a huge list of pop bets for the 2020 NFL Draft, and I want to help you make some money.
The format is pretty simple here, I’m going to walk through a few options that I think are easy money, a few high risk/high reward underdog picks, and a few bets to stay far away from.
Will Austin Jackson (OT USC) be picked in the 1st round? – No (+125)
While going off of your own board is the wrong way to make money in trying to predict draft picks, Austin Jackson is my 98th overall player in the class. I think we’re all pretty clear on the top 4 tackles, whatever order you may put them in (Wills, Thomas, Wirfs, Becton), then you have Josh Jones, and then you have a drop off to the Jackson, Niang, Tega Wanogho tier. I’ll go off the odds that less than 6 tackles are taken in the first round, leaving Jackson on the outside looking in.
CJ Henderson (CB Florida) o/u pick 16.5: Under (-200)
CJ Henderson has emerged from the combine as the CB2 on the “consensus boards” out there, and for good reason. He’s a hell of a player who is super sticky and confident in man coverage. On top of that, Atlanta picks 16 and desperately needs a corner, other than Atlanta you have the Jags and Raiders with big time needs at the position inside the top 16 picks.
Will Brandon Aiyuk (WR Arizona State) be picked in the 1st round? No (-155)
Brandon Aiyuk is a great player, he has an awesome athletic profile, and a ton of college production. However, he’s in a loaded WR class and just completed an abdominal surgury which, in a normal year would be no problem, but in a year where NFL teams aren’t able to bring in players and have their doctors check up on players I have a hard time seeing Aiyuk being taken in the 1st 32 picks.
Will Laviska Shenault (WR Colorado) be picked in the 1st round? No (-300)
I’m lower on Laviska than most from a talent evaluation perspective, but that’s not why I’m betting no here. Laviska’s injury history is a problem, and similar to Aiyuk, I can’t see an NFL GM staking his job taking Laviska in the 1st round of the draft when other WRs like Denzel Mims, Jalen Raegor, KJ Hamler, or Tee Higgins will probably be available.
More 1st round picks, LSU or Alabama? Alabama (+160)
Let’s break this down for a second.
LSU. Locks: Joe Burrow, K’Lavon Chaisson. Probable: Justin Jefferson, Patrick Queen. Maybe: Kristian Fulton, Grant Delpit, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Lloyd Cushenberry. That makes 2 locks, and 6 probable/possible players.
Alabama. Locks: Tua, Jedrick Wills, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs. Probable: Xavier McKinney. Maybe: Terrell Lewis, Raekwon Davis. 4 locks and 3 more probable/possible players.
I’ll take my chances with the locks on the Alabama side and hope that the back-end 1st round possibilities for LSU fall into the 2nd.
1st Round WRs o/u 5.5. Under (+200)
The talent in this wide receiver class is insane. On my personal big board I have 7 of them in my top 32. That is exactly why we take the under. Many teams in this year’s class will look to fill other needs in the 1st round from positions that aren’t as deep, kicking the proverbial WR can to day 2. I mentioned Aiyuk and Shenault already as players with medical red-flags, plus throw in guys like Hamler with drop issues and Higgins with athleticism question marks and you find yourself with only 4-5 players taken in the top 32.
Take a Shot at Some Dogs
Will Jonathan Taylor (RB Wisconsin) be picked in the 1st round? Yes (+225)
I love watching Jonathan Taylor run the football, between his vision and big play athleticism he fits right into just about nay NFL scheme. On top of that, the NFL has learned that leaning on a young RB on his rookie contract is the way to go. Very rarely does the 1st round finish without at least 1 1st round RB selected, I think Taylor has a great chance to be the guy in 2020.
1st Offensive Lineman picked. Andrew Thomas (+700)
Andrew Thomas has prototype size, 36″ arms, and started just about every game since his true freshman year on what is widely known as one of the best offensive lines in college football. Even in a great tackle class I can easily see a path where Dave Gettleman falls in love with Thomas at #4.
1st Wide Receiver picked. Henry Ruggs (+225)
Obviously CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy are great football players, but Henry Ruggs can hold his own weight… and he can run 4.27. I’ve seen the NFL draft too many times, throw some money at this one.
When is Jalen Hurts drafted? (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4-7)
I can see a world where Jalen Hurts is drafted at pick 32 by a team trying to utilize the 5th year option. I can see a world where Jalen Hurts falls to the 6th round. Stay away from this one.
When is Tua Tagovailoa drafted? (2nd pick, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, field)
Putting money on this prop is basically playing a penny slot. Sure it’s possible you can get lucky, but between the injuries, the other available QBs, and the teams that are looking for QBs, I have absolutely no idea what will happen with Tua in this unprecedented draft.
Jordan Love o/u 19.5
You can probably see a trend here, the QB class this year is just about impossible to peg after Joe Burrow at #1. Jordan Love could go high to the Chargers or Panthers, he could also fall out of the 1st round all together. 19.5 is also an interesting spot, pegging him directly in between the Raiders and Jaguars respective 2nd 1st round picks.
Will Zack Baun be picked in the 1st round?
Zack Baun is such an intriguing prospect, is he an edge, is he an off-ball linebacker, is he both? Personally I have him at 37 on my board, I have seen a ton of analysts ranking him inside their top 25, and I have no idea how the NFL will value him.